It wasn’t always like this. There was a time when an Australian Test tour of South Africa was the tour. The Wanderers in November, with the ball flying through to the keeper; Kingsmead in December and Newlands in early January. The summer would be built around the series. This one is three Tests in October, with three ODIs and a two-day warm-up as the run-in.
Gqeberha gets weather off the sea every month, and that gentle coastal rain hangs around for days; it’s practically a brand. Cape Town in late October is technically out of winter, but “technically” is doing a lot of work there. Newlands has always been the banker for five dry days, and now, for the first time in living memory, that’s at risk.
Then there’s the surfaces. South African pitches are good because the summer heat bakes the black soil, compacts it, and gives you that hard, true bounce. In October the squares are barely out of winter. You can put a heater on a pitch and pray, but a square doesn’t compact because a fixtures committee needs it to.
Here’s my forecast: short matches, bowlers dominating, a lot of play that isn’t play. Totals under 250 that look like 400. Seamers going home with averages they’ll frame, batters with averages they’ll hide. Conditions like these ask which side has fewer weaknesses for the weather to find. Thirty years ago, I’d have laughed at that being said about Australia, but not now. I played against Australian sides with a settled top six and a settled conviction.
I don’t believe this series will be won collectively. Collective belief needs time, momentum and sunshine, and this tour offers none
A stark reminder is necessary: win, and Lord’s was no fluke. Lose, and the sceptics will say a one-off final on neutral ground decided nothing, that the whole idea of a Test champion is a farce with a mace attached. South Africa have far more to lose in this series than Australia do.
I don’t believe this series will be won collectively. Collective belief needs time, momentum and sunshine, and this tour offers none. It will come down to the player with the most to prove pulling his side through. A hundred on a bad pitch in bad light; fifties from seven, eight or nine; personal acts before team ones. I say this because my overriding concern is that it doesn’t feel a big enough occasion for a good few to dig that deep. Cricket in October in South Africa doesn’t feel right. Wrong month, wrong pitches – it’s a series that simply looks and feels odd.
Which brings me to what irks me most. We keep hearing about the Big Three. India, England and Australia may dominate financially, but the phrase has become fashionable among pundits even when the standard of cricket does not justify it. Australia should remember that when they come to South Africa: turn up for the world champions with a side worthy of the billing. Otherwise the difference between reputation and performance becomes obvious. If the cricket does not support the label, then Big Three is not a cricketing status; it’s a financial one.
